Even after the trimming of $83 million, some say plan is too ambitious to be realized.

Goat meets snake. Snake strikes goat. The goat fears for his life. And what’s on the mind of the swallowing snake?

“The fear is that the goat never gets through,” said City Finance Director Elray Konkel.

The goat in this case is the year 2009, during which capital spending at the city could swell to $43.6 million, or more than double what’s projected for 2008 in the most recent version of the Capital Facilities Plan.

That’s a big meal for the snake, divided into six segments – one for each year in the updated CFP – whose aim is to process a rapidly growing list of projects around the island.

Some community members are having trouble digesting the idea that the city can afford to spend $101 million on infrastructure over the next six years, as outlined in the plan.

Konkel, for one, understands the skepticism.

“That’s still a ton of money,” he said of the $101 million, before offering what he considers to be a more “reasonable” target of $60 million. “But even at $60 million it’s fairly stretched.”

Whether to go with the current number or cut the list to match Konkel’s recommendation ultimately is up to the City Council, which will hear a second reading of the updated plan tonight. Final approval could come Sep. 12.

The 203-page CFP is required by the state as part of the city’s Comprehensive Plan. It weighs all of the city’s capital needs – like roads, public buildings and utilities – against its revenue.

The biggest project on the horizon is the $21 million Winslow Way streetscape project, set for construction in 2009, which will repair failing underground utilities and update the surface of the street. The project, along with a $9 million police and court facility, make up almost 30 percent of planned capital spending between now and 2013.

The plan has been winnowed by $83 million since its first reading before council in July. Postponed projects include the renovation of the Bainbridge Island Senior Community Center, for which early planning is underway.

But some say that even with the cuts, the plan is too ambitious because it would mean a huge investment in 2009 and an average annual capital spending of nearly $17 million through 2013.

That’s almost three times the $6.6 million spent on average annually on capital projects over the past four years, according to analysis done by island accountant Daniel Smith, and confirmed as accurate by Konkel. Recent spending and ongoing staff shortages at City Hall have Smith concerned about the plan.

“The city’s level of expenditures and encumbrances through July 31 suggest that 2007 won’t be much different (than the past four years),” he said in his written comments to the City Council. “Fully staffing the Public Works Department is of course helpful, but no guarantee that the continuation of a difficult bidding climate or future staff turnover will not severely limit the planning and completion of capital projects.”

As a planning document, the CFP doesn’t contain the same amount of detail as the city’s annual budget. Still, the city updates it each year to outline future projects and because state law dictates that no money can be spent on projects not included in the CFP.

Konkel said the first two years usually are an accurate indication of likely spending, but beyond that it’s less predictable.

Capital spending for 2008 is at $19.5 million, according to the plan. Then, as the city begins work on the streetscape – the first tangible piece of the Winslow Tomorrow planning effort – costs balloon to $43.6 million.

Spending in 2010 tapers off to $15 million and $10 million in 2011, followed by $8 million and $5 million respectively in the years 2012 and 2013.

There’s not much way around a monster 2009, Konkel said, because the streetscape work needs to be done quickly to minimize construction impacts on local businesses. Plus, he said, the project is the most important capital need facing the city.

Smith agrees about the importance of the project, but suggested breaking it up over several years.

The CFP anticipates $13 million in voter-approved bonds over the next six years, and $22 million in council-approved bonds, all of which would come over the next two years.

Konkel said the estimate for the voter-approved portion of the plan is dictated by need and the likelihood that funding for certain types of projects would be approved by voters.

Because the city’s CFP must mesh with the capital plans of the school, park, fire and sewer districts, all of the groups meet regularly to share plans and try to spread out the tax burden over time.

This is the first year that the CFP will be finished prior to the beginning of the city budget process this fall. In past years, the two efforts happened concurrently. Staggering the processes was done to improve efficiency.

Efficiency also will in part determine how much of the planned capital work actually gets done, Konkel said.

“Historically finishing six to eight million dollars worth is a good year,” he said. “Doing more than that is pretty unrealistic unless you just turn the checkbook over to consultants and contractors.”

Like Smith, Bob Fortner, of the taxpayer watchdog Bainbridge Resource Group, is scratching his head over the plan.

“The question I have is, do we want to have a city that’s fully leveraged with no unspoken for capital or revenue in this economic climate?” he said.

Though not in response to Fortner, Smith offered a slightly altered version of Konkel’s snake analogy.

“Do what our mothers always told us,” he said. “Take small bites so you don’t choke.”

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The fullest of plates?

The City Council tomorrow will review the newly trimmed $101 million Capital Facilities Plan.

A combined $30 million would cover the cost of the Winslow Way Streetscape project and a new police and court facility.

Some $10.1 million is planned for various open space improvements, including road ends, shoreline restoration and park projects.

Another $5.6 million would go toward wastewater treatment plant upgrades in 2008.

About $34 million would go toward transportation, roads and parking between 2008 and 2013, including the streetscape project.